Difference between revisions of "Complexity Coping List"

Revision as of 11:57, 4 April 2021

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These are the mentally comforting, psychologically soothing ways to be comfortable with complexity

• Simple Explanations of Complexity
• Simple Solution for a Complex Challenges
  • Tax Cuts
  • Medicare for All

We want simple solutions vs. enablement frameworks - Michael Pollen - eat food, not too much, mostly plants

Heuristics
- requires little time, little effort and doesn't require attention

• availability,
• representativeness,
• anchoring and adjustment
• RESULT: Oversimplfy Causation Attribution (OSA), Predictions, Strategy, Solution Impact,

Cognitive Bias
- rather than using 1st Principle Thinking, we use these short cuts to reduce time, effort and attention. We fit things nicely into our existing narratives.

• Hundreds of biases. We fit
• RESULT: Simple Explanation of Complex Systems (SEOCS) or Simple Models of Complex Systems (SMOCS), Simple Predictions, Simple Strategies, Simple Solution Impact

Avoid Cognitive Dissonance
- we don't like waking up at 3am when our subconsience is demanding attention to it's struggle with cognitive dissonces

• RESULT: Mentally Soothing Explanation of Complex Systems (MSECS), Predictions, Strategies, Impact Results

In their paper “Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases” (1974)2, Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky identified three different kinds of heuristics: availability, representativeness, and anchoring and adjustment