Complexity Coping List

Return to GC Chapters It turns out, we are excellent at coping. Coping with complexity and uncertainty.

Psychologically Soothing Explanations (Diagnosis)
These are ways we can avoid complexity and be comfortable to release your mind from the struggle

• Simple Explanations of Complexity
  • Tax Cuts
  • Medicare for All

Simple Predictions - Simple Mental Models (Prognosis)

• It will be OK, Overly simple
• if this, then that

Simple Solutions to Complexity

• Tax Cuts, Build the Wall, New Government Programs, Medicare for All
• War on Poverty, War on Drugs, Universal Basic Income, War on Terror

Simple Solutions for a Complex Challenges (Treatment)
We want simple solutions vs. enablement frameworks -

• KISS (Keep it Simple Stupid) Doesn't Work with Complexity
  
• It helps making a point or focusing - though needs to be built on complex mental model to work.
• Michael Pollen - eat food, not too much, mostly plants

Avoidance of Mental Conflict

• Status Quo - defend thinking - rather than opening up to the complexity of "I may be wrong"

Mentally Comforting Actions

• Plastic straws - I'm doing my thing for the environment.
• I put up a "Black Lives Matters' sign
• I use paper bags. I gave at the food bank.
• Tiny action to a massive, complex challenge

Heuristics
Avoid spending the time, the effort, the attention and the mental challenge

• availability,
• representativeness,
• anchoring and adjustment
• RESULT: Oversimplfy Causation Attribution (OSA), Predictions, Strategy, Solution Impact,
• In their paper “Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases” (1974)2, Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky identified three different kinds of heuristics: availability, representativeness, and anchoring and adjustment

Cognitive Bias
- rather than using 1st Principle Thinking, we use these short cuts to reduce time, effort and attention. We fit things nicely into our existing narratives.

• Hundreds of biases. We fit
• RESULT: Simple Explanation of Complex Systems (SEOCS) or Simple Models of Complex Systems (SMOCS), Simple Predictions, Simple Strategies, Simple Solution Impact

Cognitive Dissonance Avoidance
- we don't like waking up at 3am when our subconsience is demanding attention to it's struggle with cognitive dissonances

• RESULT: Mentally Soothing Explanation of Complex Systems (MSECS), Predictions, Strategies, Impact Results
• general discomfort there is no obvious

Narrow Thinking - See the Tree Ignore the Forrest

• Avoid discovering all the impacting elements
• Avoid confusion
• Avoid feeling conflicted over what is disputed
• Avoid people saying you are a hypocrite
• Avoid not knowing what to do

Avoid Social Pain

• same brain receptors as being physicially threatened
• Rejection, exclusion & loss