Strategy Prediction Framework

The effectiveness of strategy predictions of how the mission will be achieved, is directly related to developing them in context to the understanding and predicting the foundational layers (complex system and change). The effectiveness is also directly related to improving the strategy approaches and predictions through iteration by predicting the most effective adjustments to the complex system, change and strategy layers. The following is a Strategy Prediction Framework to guide development of strategy predictions:
1. Complex System Prediction Layer

• Impact the impacting elements will have on achieving the mission
• Current State of uncertain and unidentified impacting elements
• Causation of the current state of the impacting elements

2. Change Prediction Layer

• Likely scenario of how impacting elements and complex system will change
• Causation of why the impacting elements and complex system will change
• Impact of expected changes on the mission and complex system
• Timing of change of the impacting elements and complex system (current state to future state)

3. Strategy Prediction Layer

• Impact the strategy will have on the mission, change and and the complex system
• Measures to determine mission progress and strategy effectiveness.
• Timing of progress toward the mission, change and complex system

4. Adjustment Prediction Layer

• Impact of potential adjustments on strategy, change, complex system and mission
• Cost of potential adjustment
• Timing to implement the adjustments and see measurable effectiveness